An hour or two later I was back at the office catching up on the Early Alert. Egypt, of course, was our focus. In the afternoon last Friday (the 11th) Mubarak finally resigned, and so the European press focused on what would come next. As France's Le Figaro pointed out, “the Egyptians today are oscillating between confidence and concern,” given the protestors' success in ousting Mubarak but the reality that the regime that supported him largely remains in place. Thus, the bulk of the European media was speculating on what the Egyptian military's next move might be. As the UK's The Independent headlined “The fate of the revolution lies in the hands of the generals.” Our third section on Egypt focused on commentaries regarding the role of the West, and particularly of Obama's administration. Italy's La Stampa judged that “President Obama won his bet and US pressures were likely decisive in provoking Mubarak’s resignation.” Conversely, a commentary in Russia's Slovo declared that “What is going on in Egypt is a serious lesson for all who consider the Americans a reliable ‘partner.’ The feeling of gratitude is unknown to the Americans.” As regards the EU, a commentator in Spain's El Pais bemoaned “the miserable role of the European Union in its relations with the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean.”
Outside of Egypt, we covered an emerging crisis: "Thousands of Tunisians flee to Italy," headlined Germany's Süddeutsche. As Spain's Cadena Ser radio reported, “The Government of Italy believes that the ever-expanding shock wave in the Arab world is making its way to Europe via illegal immigrants,” which some Italian ministers feared would become a “biblical exodus” from Tunisia.
On Tuesday the 15th this influx of migrants from Tunisia into the Italian island of Lampedusa made it to the top of the Early Alert. Some in the European press took the opportunity to argue that rather than “set up an anti-poverty wall at Europe's southern and eastern borders… Europe must help improve the perspectives of the people in their home countries” (Germany's Die Welt), others argued that “The North Africans that are exploiting the power vacuum in Tunisia right now to flee the country must be sent back. The EU's asylum system is in need for improvement but we would overstretch it if Italy and other EU members would idly watch the arrival of young people who would leave the country despite the successful revolution,” and a few pointed out that at the EU level, “there has never been a real and effective involvement of Europe to stop an invasion that began years ago and that sometimes, like now, becomes dramatic” (Italy's Quotidiano Nazionale).
Other stories on Tuesday included renewed protests in Iran, spurred on by the example of Egypt. Spain's Cuatro TV pointed out the hypocrisy that “ The regime of the ayatollahs, which publically supported the uprisings in North Africa, is suppressing any attempt at protest within its own border.” We also focused on the new wave of strikes in Egypt for better wages and jobs, and on the continued spread of protests across the Middle East and North Africa.
We were fortunate to have gotten all the information we did on Tuesday for the Early Alert, as the tasker was sent out a half hour or more late. Why? Well, there was a major metro strike in Brussels that day, that left me with an hour long hike to work that morning. According to other staff members, normally strikes in Brussels are announced in advance, but there had been an assault on one of the metro operators Monday night and as a result of that and past incidents of violence against metro personnel the workers went on strike. Unfortunately the strike was not resolved before I left work, so I hiked back as well. But it was kind of nice to have a chance to see above-ground the route I take to work each day, so it was by no means a ruined birthday.
Wednesday I left for work extra early to ensure that if the metro strike continued someone would be in the Media Hub prior to Ambassador Kennard's arrival for an interview. Luckily the strike ended either Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Unfortunately I did not get a chance to meet with the Ambassador, as I was distracted with the Early Alert, but from what I heard he gave a great followup to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's speech earlier that week on internet freedom. Later that day the State Department's Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism, Hannah Rosenthal, and the Special Representative to Muslim Communities, Farah Anwar Pandith, came in for a joint interview on their '2011 Hours Against Hate' initiative.
For Wednesday's Early Alert, I chose to focus on four separate topics:
- Reaction to Secretary Clinton's internet freedom speech. These varied from positive appraisals – for instance, a commentary in Italy's La Stampa headlined “The Internet is Hillary's Ally,” the State Department's use of the internet as a diplomatic tool to that of the radio-based Voice of America during the Cold War – to criticisms, such as criticism in a commentary in the UK's The Guardian that Clinton's “argument is tarnished by WikiLeaks, for it is too easy to say that the US failed to maintain the principles of internet freedom at a moment when its own structure of secrecy was threatened.”
- Strengthening protests in Bahrain, a small island country in the Persian Gulf. Instability in Barhain is of particular concern for the United States for two main reasons. First, the United States Naval Forces Central Command is headquartered and based in Bahrain. Secondly, while the elite of Bahrain are predominately Sunni Muslims, like neighboring Saudi Arabia, the majority of the island's population are Shiite Muslims, like the bulk of nearby Iran. Thus, there is a fear that if Bahrain's government is toppled, than a Shiite regime presumably sympathetic to Iran would come to power. While most of the European press coverage on Bahrain focuses on, as The Guardian describes it, “sectarian fault lines,” some others, like the German Berliner Zeitung, feel that “The people have no time to think about such petty things during the spring of Arab revolutions…” Either way, the Frankfurter Rundschau warns that “If Bahrain falls as the next domino, the potentates of other oil states in the region could get into trouble.”
- On the continuing protests in Iran, most of the European press seemed to favor President Obama's speech, with La Stampa opining that “ After having almost lost his balance in Egypt, Obama has thrown himself on the wave of revolt which is crossing the Middle East.” The Polish Rzeczpospolita notes the irony that “America supports the rebellion of the opposition in Iran while Iran supports the revolt in the pro-American Bahrain.”
- Further speculation on Egypt's future, with Financial Times Deutschland headlining “ Military preparing for its own deprivation of power.” That quite aptly sums up how uncertain the situation remains, particularly the question of how much the government will change.
Thursday's Early Alert featured further reactions to Secretary Clinton's speech on internet freedom, and also on protests across the Middle East. On the speech, France's Le Monde reads “Criticized for having sided with stability rather than revolution in Egypt, Hillary Clinton took back the initiative,” while Spain's Cadena Ser comments “Can we take seriously the words of the Secretary of State, a woman who is part of a government that has done everything possible to block Wikileaks?” On Iran, Britain’s The Independent judges that “Iran’s tyranny will pass, but not peacefully,” arguing that “the Egyptian model is not easy to transpose to Iran…. In some ways, everyone in Iran, and not just the rulers, has an aversion to risking the status quo. Perhaps the biggest factor is the military… The idea that they would stand aside for a peaceful transition to democracy is fanciful.” Additionally, I wrote a section on the first Libya, which began to receive significant coverage. A commentator in Britain’s The Times wrote in reference to the country's ruler of 42 years, Colonel Qaddafi, that “The mad dog won’t go without a fight” and that “the odds remain stacked in Colonel Qaddafi's favor.”
Besides the Early Alert, on Thursday the Media Hub hosted a delegation of about 15 press officials from various parts of the Bahraini government, which was particularly interesting given the state of their country right now. They were given a presentation by the director of the Media Hub on how the State Department and especially the Hub operates. Interestingly, in Bahrain it seems that people can be both journalists and members of the government simultaneously; something that of course is not the case in the US. Later that day we hosted a meeting of journalism students from the US and Europe in which they discussed Secretary Clinton's speech on internet freedom. I also briefly looked into the feasibility of the Hub hosting a training session for PAOs from US embassies in the Balkan countries.
The Early Alert on Friday focused on:
- The overall regional character of the Arab unrest. France's Le Parisien reported on the “wind of revolution blowing across Libya, Bahrain and Yemen… to which security forces are responding with bloody repression.” The German Tagesspiegel emphasized the reality that “ the US influence on the regimes is not so great” and also that “ There is no panacea that can be applied to all the countries of the region.” For instance, “In Egypt, Obama's caution seems to be successful, while in Bahrain, he was unable to prevent the crushing of protests.”
- Reaction to the crackdown on protests in Bahrain. Spain's La Razon headlined “Bahrain crushes the revolt with blood and fire,” and Britain’s The Times comments that “anger at the King and his regime has now boiled over.” Poland's Gazeta Wyborcza, however, contends that “Protests in Bahrain will continue but we will not see a repetition of the Egyptian scenario. Saudi Arabia will not allow it, given that the tiny archipelago in the Gulf is the arena of struggle for influence between the Sunni Saudi Arabia and the Shiite Iran.”
- The dilemma Bahrain presents to the West. The British Daily Telegraph notes that: “There has been no hint of support for the protesters – in striking contrast to Mr. Obama’s overt encouragement to demonstrators in Iran,” but the paper also cautions that “Those urging America to offer moral support to the pro-democracy demonstrators must ponder the consequences of destabilizing a country that is part of the West’s bulwark against Iran.” The Financial Times editorializes that “Bahrain’s western friends should not lose their nerve now” and “should push for change before the time for reform runs out.”
- Continuing protests in Libya also were a major concern in the European press. Italy's La Repubblica headlines “Gaddafi’s iron fist: Revolt spreads, 20 dead.” Most of the European press seemed doubtful as to the likelihood that Libya would see the same sort of revolution as Egypt and Tunisia. For instance, Berliner Zeitung opines that "the situation in Libya is different. Social pressure is not as great as in Egypt, and it is easier to control six million Libyans than 80 million Egyptians."
Later on Friday I helped the Media Hub director brainstorm questions to ask Alec Ross, Sectary Clinton's Senior Adviser for Innovation. Ross will be coming in a few weeks for an interview at the Hub and then a discussion with personnel from the embassies on using new social media (Facebook, Twitter, etc) to advance US foreign policy and outreach.
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